Readers of this blog know that I favor Obama in the U.S. primaries. And while I can't really fault Clinton for staying in the race, I'm concerned that the next three months are not a great way to build party unity and develop a good strategy against John McCain in the fall.
Having said that, I ran the numbers last night. If Democrats counted up their delegates the same way Republicans do (giving the winner of the state all the delegates, not a proportion of them), Clinton would be the frontrunner right now.
It'd be close, but for Barack to win, he'd have to win 6 competitions (where he's currently favored) and then pick up at least one of the following states/territories: Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Puerto Rico, or Kentucky. Clinton is favored to win all of those.
In other words, if it weren't for this switch, made 20 years ago after a push by Jesse Jackson, Barack would be having this major uphill fight. And people would be calling on him to step down.........
Here's the math: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pLzwxoRcCDWckDVZDoUpiKw
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