Expert: Raila Has Sensible Vision, Little Chance

Or... "Expert: Kalonzo Musyoka has no business running for president"

This article sizes up the two heavyweights in the opposition party's primaries, with an eye toward the general election.

The author is Ahmednasir Abdullahi, a former chairman of the influential Law Society of Kenya. He makes the argument that the former front-runner, Kalonzo Musyoka has no credibility and is economically out-of-touch with reality. That might be true.

Polls suggest that Musyoka's popularity is dropping. The media seem to favor a Raila vs. Kibaki match up, and now the people do as well.

To Raila's credit, out of all the presidential hopefuls in ODM-Kenya, he alone projects strength. He can draw crowds at the drop of the hat. He has a long history of fighting for democratization and the opening of political space. He's even pledged to create a strong post for a Prime Minister, which would seem to actually take away the majority of his potential presidential powers.

The author doesn't recognize that Raila, too, is compromised by his former cooperation with the old, corrupt ruling KANU party. And that he, too, ditched it when he saw that he wasn't going to be chosen for president. That Raila is prone to outrageous comments, always alleging that there are massive conspiracies, including plots to kill him, but providing little evidence.

(There is, to be fair to Raila, a history of prominent Luo politicians being murdered: Tom Mboya, Robert Ouko, and, apparently, Peter Okondo and Prof. Mbai.)

On top of that, Raila has reportedly admitted some involvement in a 1982 coup attempt against President Moi. Kenyans have seen what happens to countries where rulers are chosen by coups instead of elections; it ain't pretty and they don't want it.

Until now, Raila has banked on support from the Luo. In fact, he has a massive influence in Luo politics and it would be political suicide for a Luo to criticize Raila.

Despite that, he still seems to be the most viable opponent to President Kibaki. Though, since he's such a polarizing figure, it's hardly clear he can pull it off.