Former Anti-Corruption Czar on the 2007 Election

FT.com print article: "Whatever the outcome, little will change without comprehensive constitutional reform and a credible anti-corruption programme. Better management of presidential powers will be crucial to a stable future for Kenya. There is a significant minority willing to tolerate a mild economic reversal in the event of an Odinga victory, if that is the price that has to be paid for a correction to what is perceived as an unjust status quo. Whether Mr Odinga would be able to carry out the necessary reforms is another matter. Kenya's future prosperity and stability are at stake."

Election Season

It's election time. America's presidential nomination battle is nearing the finish line, with the Iowa caucus in early January. There's the big three on the side of Democrats, with both Obama and Clinton seeming very electable. On the Republican side, you've got Rudy, Mitt, McCain, Thompson, and Huckabee, none of whom seem very electable... (I'm an Obama fan myself.)

I watch those races with the same nerdy political excitement that I've always had for American politics. Being in Kenya has in a number of ways heightened my appreciation for the American political system. You know what I really love about the American system? Just how absurdly (and I mean that in a positive way) democratic it is.

How many positions do we vote for? In Wisconsin, to the best of my knowledge, we vote for the president, two senators, a member of the house, a governor, an attorney general, two state representatives, county executive, county representative, mayor, alderman, sheriff, coroner, and others. Off the top of my head, that's already 14. And that doesn't include the primaries for a number of those positions. Or the referenda that come up every so often.

In Kenya, under the current system, you have just three elected positions: President, Member of Parliament, and Councilor. Those positions come up for elections every five years. In the eyes of most Kenyans, it's a long five years.

The nomination system this year was actually similar to what America had a hundred years ago: back room negotiations produced a candidate and all other presidential aspirants were supposed to give up their presidential bids and unite around the negotiated candidate.

The process led to a split in the opposition and has created a a three-way race for the presidency. We're now just eight days away from the general election. Kibaki, the sitting president, has been polling at 43%, Raila Odinga at 45%, and Kalonzo Musyoka at a distant third with 10%.

I'm not a big fan of any of the three, though I admit that, given the options, I support Raila. He promises constitutional change and I believe that he has the potential to deliver it. Why? He wants a constitution that takes power away from the president. Naturally, Kibaki enjoys his powers as president and isn't keen to give them away quite yet.

If Kibaki loses, you can be sure his supporters will do everything they can to reduce the powers of an Odinga presidency. Suddenly having a powerful president doesn't seem so desirable....

Will Raila stick to his promises? I'm betting yes. He's tied himself so closely to devolution and to his “pentagon” of five former presidential candidates who support him that it'd be difficult (but not impossible) for him to ignore them once in office.

Just eight days away. I'm betting it'll be free and fair and mostly peaceful. I hope if Raila loses, he and his supporters will calmly accept the loss. Unfortunately, I'm not sure that'll happen.

I'll be viewing it from Halako's home town, Hola. It'll be my first time meeting her sisters, step mothers, 20 half-siblings, and the rest of the family. Wish me luck...