Kenya: The Short Term

Kenya's political leaders have reached a peace agreement of sorts. I'll address the short, medium, and long-term effects of all of this in different posts. 

In the short term (think the next three months), these are the reasons for optimism:

1. Both parties have reached a political agreement that can be seen as fair to everybody. The creation of the prime minister position allows everybody to claim some kind of victory.

Kibaki keeps his claim on the presidency. Raila can claim enough power to keep his followers relieved that he will matter.

2. The economy has been leveled by the recent violence and the enduring political stagnation.

Both Raila and Kibaki are wealthy businessmen, as are virtually all their friends. When the economy suffers, so do they. They, in fact, are among the first to be hit. Certainly gives them an incentive to reach some kind of settlement.

3. The international pressure up to this point has been immense, and there are reasons to think that the international community will remain focused on stability in Kenya for the near future.

4. A lot of the work that now confronts Parliament and the President (and now the Prime Minister) is just trying to clean up the mess that the past couple months has created.

(Locally, it's known as machafuko, which translates to "crisis" or "disorder", though the root of the word is -chafua, which means "to dirty".)

In other words, the very immediate work isn't really controversial. There are other proposals that have already been agreed to, though they may still prove rather difficult to implement without some fisticuffs.

Here, I'm particularly thinking of a  as a Truth and Reconciliation Committee. There's a lot of people who do not want truth to come out and will do whatever they can to make sure that they and their actions do not come under any scrutiny. Probably plenty of people on both political sides.  There's a real danger of a whitewash here, which would please the politicians, but not really meet the societal cleansing goal that seems to underlay any such effort.

More on the medium and long term later...

A "National Accord"

Great news out of Kenya today. Kibaki and Raila sat down and signed a peace agreement.

This is a absolutely huge deal in the short-term. Both sides have accepted major compromises to get here.

Am I surprised? Not really. There have been good signs of progress over the course of the past month.  The fact that the discussions have covered as much ground as they have is a strong indication that both sides realized that they needed to compromise.

There were signs in the past few days that the talks were about to collapse. The U.S. sent out a very strong statement a couple days ago about taking serious action against whoever was seen to be dragging their feet on the talks. (Widely seen as the government.)

For all the hatred against the Bush Administration's policies and politics, they've done a pretty good job on Kenya. They've been effectively pushing both sides to compromise.

They've successfully portrayed themselves as in league with the Kenyan people and relatively independent toward both the government and the opposition.

But they shouldn't think the hard work is over. In fact, it's just begun.

Veepstakes

If Obama pulls off this Democratic nomination, he's gotta go with Bill Richardson as VP, right? He's a Latino and he's from the strategically important southwest, and as far as foreign policy cred goes, he's among the best out there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjOuL5qwNIc&feature=related

Interesting Hillary Interview

Just stumbled on this interview of Hillary Clinton. Starting at the two-minute mark, there's a fascinating conversation about what if she's not the democratic nominee. Her answer? "I will be."




(Referenced by a scathing attack on the Clinton campaign from Frank Rich.)

Updates Since December

Wow. Things have changed so much since I last posted. Kenyan politics, American politics. Personally, professionally.

I'll talk about all of these things eventually. I am now back in America. We are working on Halako's visa. There are some positive signs there, but it's a long process. We're waiting for U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services to act on our application. I'm guessing anytime between March and August, it'll all be settled. (That's how unclear we are about the timeline we're working with.)

I'm transitioning back to America a bit more slowly now than I did the first time back.

I am now working on two blog posts, one about the Kenyan Election that took place in December and another about the ongoing American Primary.

Former Anti-Corruption Czar on the 2007 Election

FT.com print article: "Whatever the outcome, little will change without comprehensive constitutional reform and a credible anti-corruption programme. Better management of presidential powers will be crucial to a stable future for Kenya. There is a significant minority willing to tolerate a mild economic reversal in the event of an Odinga victory, if that is the price that has to be paid for a correction to what is perceived as an unjust status quo. Whether Mr Odinga would be able to carry out the necessary reforms is another matter. Kenya's future prosperity and stability are at stake."

Election Season

It's election time. America's presidential nomination battle is nearing the finish line, with the Iowa caucus in early January. There's the big three on the side of Democrats, with both Obama and Clinton seeming very electable. On the Republican side, you've got Rudy, Mitt, McCain, Thompson, and Huckabee, none of whom seem very electable... (I'm an Obama fan myself.)

I watch those races with the same nerdy political excitement that I've always had for American politics. Being in Kenya has in a number of ways heightened my appreciation for the American political system. You know what I really love about the American system? Just how absurdly (and I mean that in a positive way) democratic it is.

How many positions do we vote for? In Wisconsin, to the best of my knowledge, we vote for the president, two senators, a member of the house, a governor, an attorney general, two state representatives, county executive, county representative, mayor, alderman, sheriff, coroner, and others. Off the top of my head, that's already 14. And that doesn't include the primaries for a number of those positions. Or the referenda that come up every so often.

In Kenya, under the current system, you have just three elected positions: President, Member of Parliament, and Councilor. Those positions come up for elections every five years. In the eyes of most Kenyans, it's a long five years.

The nomination system this year was actually similar to what America had a hundred years ago: back room negotiations produced a candidate and all other presidential aspirants were supposed to give up their presidential bids and unite around the negotiated candidate.

The process led to a split in the opposition and has created a a three-way race for the presidency. We're now just eight days away from the general election. Kibaki, the sitting president, has been polling at 43%, Raila Odinga at 45%, and Kalonzo Musyoka at a distant third with 10%.

I'm not a big fan of any of the three, though I admit that, given the options, I support Raila. He promises constitutional change and I believe that he has the potential to deliver it. Why? He wants a constitution that takes power away from the president. Naturally, Kibaki enjoys his powers as president and isn't keen to give them away quite yet.

If Kibaki loses, you can be sure his supporters will do everything they can to reduce the powers of an Odinga presidency. Suddenly having a powerful president doesn't seem so desirable....

Will Raila stick to his promises? I'm betting yes. He's tied himself so closely to devolution and to his “pentagon” of five former presidential candidates who support him that it'd be difficult (but not impossible) for him to ignore them once in office.

Just eight days away. I'm betting it'll be free and fair and mostly peaceful. I hope if Raila loses, he and his supporters will calmly accept the loss. Unfortunately, I'm not sure that'll happen.

I'll be viewing it from Halako's home town, Hola. It'll be my first time meeting her sisters, step mothers, 20 half-siblings, and the rest of the family. Wish me luck...